The Gaming Facility Location Board (GFLB), the five-member panel responsible for evaluating the three remaining bids for downstate New York casino licenses, is set to reconvene Wednesday evening for its final meeting of October.
After months of rapid developments and constant updates from competing applicants, the process has noticeably slowed—at least from the public’s perspective. With final proposals already submitted, the flurry of public hearings and community discussions has now given way to private deliberations behind closed doors.
The GFLB’s initial meeting on October 8 lasted just 15 minutes and focused mainly on organizational matters. Subsequent meetings, however, have stretched for several hours. While technically open to the public, these virtual sessions are conducted with audio and video disabled during discussions, leaving only the opening and closing portions visible.
To ensure impartiality, none of the five GFLB members have prior experience or direct ties to the gaming industry. Four of them were appointed this year, with the newest member joining the board on September 30.
The board faces a December 1 deadline to submit its licensing recommendations to the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC). So far, meetings have followed a weekly schedule, meaning only five sessions remain—including this Wednesday—before the board must make its final recommendations.
What criteria is NYC casino board considering?
Once the GFLB submits its recommendations, the New York State Gaming Commission will have the final authority to determine the licensing outcome. Regulators may choose to approve all three licenses, grant fewer than three, or delay certain awards for a later date.
A similar scenario unfolded during the 2014–15 upstate New York casino process, when the GFLB recommended four properties, but the commission initially approved only three. The fourth license—ultimately granted to Tioga Downs Casino Resort—was issued a year later.
With MGM Resorts’ unexpected withdrawal earlier this month, three contenders now remain in the running for the three available downstate casino licenses.
The bidders submitted their final, amended applications to the GFLB 14 October. Each project is being reviewed based on four weighted criteria:
- Economic activity and business development (70%)
- Local impact siting (10%)
- Workforce enhancement (10%)
- Diversity framework (10%)
Bally’s busy across the country
All three remaining bidders have stayed active as the New York casino licensing process continues. Bally’s, in particular, is juggling major projects nationwide — from Chicago to Las Vegas — in addition to its ambitious $4 billion proposal for the Bronx.
In Chicago, the company’s $1.7 billion casino project has encountered several setbacks, including recent resistance from lenders funding the development. Under its agreement with the city, Bally’s is required to open the venue by September 9, 2026, but the company now expects to launch in the fourth quarter of that year. Bally’s declined to comment on the revised schedule.
Meanwhile, on the Las Vegas Strip, Bally’s revealed updated renderings and a general construction timeline this month for its 26-acre site adjacent to the under-construction A’s MLB stadium. The project is planned in four phases, beginning as early as April 2026 and running through March 2029.
The schedule is tight — Phase 1, which includes infrastructure, dining, and retail spaces, is set to open alongside the stadium in spring 2028. The casino itself, along with two hotel towers totaling 3,000 rooms and a large theater, would follow in Phases 2 through 4.
Bally’s continues to face significant scrutiny over its heavily leveraged financial structure and ongoing debt restructuring. Much of its capital has come from Gaming and Leisure Properties, which has indicated it may invest in a New York venture. Bally’s has maintained that its reverse merger with Intralot strengthened its balance sheet, giving it “more than $1 billion in cash and available credit.”
However, if Bally’s secures a New York casino license, it would also be required to pay an additional $115 million to the Trump Organization — a controversial clause included in the 2023 property sale agreement.
Resorts World, Hard Rock all-in as well
Resorts World is also making strategic moves as it positions itself for a New York casino license. Parent company Genting Berhad is in the process of acquiring its Genting Malaysia subsidiary in a $1.6 billion deal aimed at streamlining and consolidating its capital structure. Meanwhile, a previously announced sale of its Resorts World Catskills property to Sullivan County in upstate New York has been temporarily paused until the merger is finalized.
In the race for a downstate license, Resorts World remains the most aggressive and committed contender. The company has proposed the highest license fee ($600 million), the highest tax rates — 56% on slot revenue and 30% on table games — and the fastest projected opening date, targeting July 2026. Its proposal has received unanimous backing from both the public and its designated community advisory board. In total, Resorts World plans to invest $5.5 billion in capital development and an additional $2 billion in community benefits.
By contrast, Metropolitan Park’s casino partner, Hard Rock International, has maintained a lower profile throughout the bidding process, even as it pursues several major developments of its own, including a new resort on the Las Vegas Strip. Financially, Hard Rock appears to be the most stable of the finalists, supported by the involvement of Steve Cohen, owner of the New York Mets and ranked by Forbes as the 101st-richest person in the world.
Hard Rock also made headlines last week for its donation to a $300 million ballroom project at the White House. While the company did not disclose the donation amount, observers noted that Hard Rock Chairman Jim Allen previously worked for the Trump Organization, adding another layer of intrigue to the company’s high-profile connections.
MTA counting on a lot of New York casino money
Two major state-level factors could complicate New York’s casino licensing process.
The first involves the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), which has already factored potential casino license and tax revenues into its upcoming budgets. The agency’s latest financial outlook, released earlier this month, assumes that all three downstate casino licenses will be awarded — and soon.
According to the report, the MTA is counting on $500 million annually in 2026 and 2027, followed by $600 million in 2028 and $200 million in 2029 from casino-related revenue — totaling $1.8 billion over four years. However, it remains unclear how much of that total will come directly from license fees.
Currently, Resorts World and Hard Rock have proposed a combined $1.1 billion in licensing fees, while Bally’s has yet to disclose a specific amount. Given the $500 million minimum license fee requirement, total revenue could reach at least $1.6 billion, assuming all three projects move forward. Yet, with recent withdrawals from other bidders, there’s no guarantee all licenses will be issued — or on time.
The MTA’s report warns that any delays in approvals could also delay both one-time license fee payments and recurring gaming tax revenues, potentially widening existing budget gaps.
New York State is already projected to face a $34 billion cumulative budget shortfall over the next three fiscal years, adding further urgency for regulators to make timely decisions.
Kalshi lawsuit now top-of-mind
Adding another layer of complexity to New York’s casino race is a new legal battle between the state and prediction market platform Kalshi. The New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) recently became the eighth state regulator to issue a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, prompting the company to file a lawsuit in return. Kalshi is now embroiled in legal disputes with six states — New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Nevada, Maryland, and New Jersey.
In addition, tribal groups in California and Wisconsin have filed separate lawsuits, while several other states have issued warnings or compliance notices to licensed sports betting operators connected to prediction market activities.
For New York, the stakes are particularly high. The state operates the largest online sports betting market in the U.S., both in revenue and tax generation. Combined retail and online handle has now approached $75 billion, producing nearly $3.5 billion in tax revenue.
The growing presence of sports event contracts and parlay-style prediction offerings on these markets could have a greater impact on New York’s revenues than in any other state. This potential disruption has accelerated similar lawsuits elsewhere, leaving state regulators under pressure to act swiftly even as the casino licensing process continues.
How this additional legal challenge might influence the downstate casino timeline remains unclear — but it undoubtedly adds more pressure and uncertainty to an already complex regulatory environment.
