According to Seaport Research Partners, stimulus measures from China's central government could "boost sentiment" and enhance the Macau gaming outlook.
In February, Macau casinos reported gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP19.74 billion (£1.9 billion/€2.2 billion/US$2.47 billion), marking a positive shift from the declines in December and January and suggesting potential future growth.
However, the industry must maintain monthly GGR of MOP20 billion to reach the government's annual target of MOP240 billion.
Given Macau’s reliance on gaming for approximately 80% of government revenue, the fiscal outlook “may not be as optimistic as expected,” warned Macau chief executive Sam Hou Fai during a 13 March briefing with Chinese government delegates. He also emphasized the need to assess future economic conditions carefully.
A stimulus package from Beijing could provide a boost.
Stimulus should support moderate growth
Seaport Research Partners noted that the plan presented at the briefing focuses on "income growth amid US tariffs," building on September's stimulus and property market support. These measures aim to "boost consumer confidence and demand," potentially increasing Macau’s gaming demand in the medium term.
On 24 September 2024, the Chinese central bank introduced what Reuters described as "the most aggressive monetary stimulus measures since Covid-19." This package included MOP10.88 trillion in new debt, a higher budget deficit, broad interest rate cuts, and more flexible monetary policies.
The easing of travel restrictions for Zhuhai residents, effective 1 January, has also fueled a surge in tourism, supporting stronger economic growth.
Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky forecasts 6.7% gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth for 2025, with mass-market gaming rising by 7%.
Meanwhile, investment firm Jefferies recently lowered its annual GGR estimate by 2%, from MOP245 billion to MOP240 billion. Despite the adjustment, this figure still reflects a 5.8% year-on-year increase and aligns with the government’s conservative projections.
Bracing for more competition
Macau’s gaming operators are bracing for increased regional competition. Japan plans to open its first casino resort, MGM Osaka, in 2030. Thailand could launch its first legal casinos by 2029, while Wynn Resorts is set to open the first casino resort in the United Arab Emirates by 2027.
In the March issue of Macau Business magazine, editorial director José Carlos Matias highlighted that these developments, which follow Macau’s “much-cherished integrated resorts model,” make the next five years crucial in determining whether Macau will “retain its crown as a gaming-tourism hub or lose competitiveness in the long term.”
As Macau explores new industries to complement its casino sector, Matias emphasized the importance of strengthening existing advantages. He suggested that by integrating targeted diversification efforts into the core business strategies of major operators, the city can adopt a practical approach while delivering measurable outcomes.
“Gaming and integrated resort operators are stepping up their efforts,” Matias wrote, “and this is likely just the beginning.”
