Casino revenues in Macau received a boost in March, continuing the momentum that started during Chinese New Year. Citigroup estimates that gross gaming revenue reached about MOP5.65 billion (US$702 million) for the period through 8 March, representing an average daily revenue of roughly MOP706 million. This figure is in line with the bank’s full-month forecast of MOP22.5 billion, which would mark an increase of around 14% compared with March 2025.
Analysts suggest the strong early performance may be partly driven by a busy entertainment lineup at casino resorts across the region. In a note released this week, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau pointed to concerts by Treasure at The Venetian Arena, Wang Sulong, and Aespa at Galaxy Arena as possible contributors to Macau’s strong start to the month.
According to industry sources cited by the analysts, VIP gaming volumes declined by around 2% to 4% compared with February. Meanwhile, mass-market gross gaming revenue fell by roughly 3% to 5% month-on-month, although the VIP hold rate appears to have been slightly higher than usual.
Analysts foresee monthly 10%-14% growth in Macau
Citigroup said it is “conservatively” maintaining its March gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau at MOP22.5 billion, which would represent a 14% increase compared with March 2025. The projection suggests that casinos will need to generate around MOP733 million per day for the remainder of the month to reach that target.
Earlier this month, JPMorgan also predicted more than 10% growth for March, assuming average daily revenue of about MOP700 million. If achieved, that pace would lift first-quarter GGR growth to roughly 13% to 14%.
Meanwhile, Seaport Research Partners expects March GGR to rise by about 12.5%, even though average daily revenue declined 2.7% compared with January and February. According to senior analyst Vutaky Umansky, first-quarter GGR is projected to grow by 13.4%, before slowing to mid-single-digit growth in the second quarter.
