In a report published on Sunday, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) highlighted Macau’s ongoing recovery following the pandemic, particularly across the gaming, tourism, and hospitality sectors. While the outlook remains positive, the group noted that overall performance is still uneven.
During the first two months of 2026, gross gaming revenue reached MOP22.63 billion in January and MOP20.63 billion in February (approximately $2.8 billion and $2.5 billion), reflecting a 13.9% increase year-on-year. Average daily revenue stood at 7.30 billion yuan in January and 7.37 billion yuan in February, marking the second- and third-highest monthly levels recorded since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Study upbeat on tourism, revenue trends
Tourism indicators remain strong, with the report noting “overheated” levels of visitor arrivals and hotel occupancy in Macau. Visitor numbers rebounded to 40 million last year, marking a 14.7% increase compared to 2024 and surpassing the previous record of 39.4 million set in 2019. For 2026, officials are aiming for 41 million arrivals, which would represent a 2.3% rise and potentially establish a new high.
According to the Macau Economic Association (MEA), the city’s economic prosperity index is expected to remain steady in the first quarter, with scores projected to stay within a “stable” range of 6.1 to 6.3 points. The index is calculated using 13 factors, including gross gaming revenue, tourism performance, hotel occupancy, and unemployment levels.
Meanwhile, Citigroup forecasts March GGR at MOP22.5 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase. JPMorgan anticipates growth of more than 10% for the month, which could push first-quarter gains to around 13% to 14%. Seaport Research Partners projects a 12.5% rise in March GGR, with overall first-quarter growth expected to reach 13.4%.
Bracing for effects of Middle East conflict
Despite the generally positive outlook and policy direction set by China’s newly approved five-year plan (2026–2030), the Macau Economic Association (MEA) cautioned that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could persist over a prolonged period.
The report noted that higher energy prices may increase the cost of living for residents and put pressure on corporate profits, potentially weakening overall consumer confidence. It also stressed the need to closely monitor both external risks and internal challenges, particularly those linked to uneven and insufficient economic development moving forward.
