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Analysts Predict Macau’s Full Recovery by 2026

Analysts predict Macau's casino industry will rebound to pre-Covid levels by 2026, driven by increased visitation and economic growth. This year, mass-market gaming is expected to see significant gains due to these favorable trends.
Analysts Predict Macau's Full Recovery by 2026
Macau is set for a promising 2024 and an even brighter 2026, according to analysts monitoring the city's post-Covid recovery.
Gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the world's leading gaming destination experienced a slight 2% dip last month, totaling MOP18.2 billion (£1.813 billion/€2.184 billion/$2.27 billion). Despite this decline, it marked the first monthly drop since Macau reopened in January 2023.
The slight decline was largely attributed to a three-day visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping from December 18 to 20, commemorating the 25th anniversary of Macau’s return to Chinese sovereignty.
During his visit, Xi oversaw the inauguration of Macau’s new Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, who succeeded Ho Iat-Seng. The ceremony, held on December 20, marked the beginning of the SAR’s sixth government, which continues efforts to diversify Macau’s economy beyond its reliance on gaming.

Macau’s winning streak expected to continue

In 2024, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased by 23.9%, reaching MOP226.78 billion, surpassing the official target of MOP216 billion. This is about 78% of the MOP292.5 billion achieved in 2019. Looking ahead, Jeffries analyst David Katz suggests that the industry could return to pre-pandemic levels by next year.
According to financial site Seeking Alpha, Katz attributes this recovery to “monetary policy initiatives aimed at improving the overall consumer health” in Macau.
Other positive factors include stronger tourism numbers and a growing mass gaming segment.
Macau expects to welcome 35 million visitors in 2025, a nearly 25% increase from the previous year. About 70% of these visitors will come from mainland China, bolstered by relaxed visa policies that allow for longer stays. International tourism is also on the rise, with over 2.4 million visitors from outside Asia in 2024, a 66% year-on-year increase. To attract more tourists, the city is expanding non-gaming attractions like sports and cultural events, promoted through conventions such as ITB Berlin, the world's largest travel trade show, set for March 4-6.
In addition, Fitch Ratings has forecasted an 8% increase in Macau's GGR for 2025, driven by the ongoing revival of the gaming tourism sector, expanded capacity, and favorable policy measures, according to analysts George Xu and Jeremy Zook.

Macau could exceed GGR target

This year, the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) has set an official GGR target of MOP240 billion. However, analysts from Citigroup have pointed out that the DICJ typically underestimates the totals.
As reported by the Macau Daily Times, Citigroup’s George Choi and Timothy Chau anticipate a 7% year-over-year increase in GGR, bringing the total to MOP244 billion. They also project a 13% rise in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for 2025.
“If past trends hold, there could be significant upside to Citi’s GGR forecast,” the analysts noted. They also highlighted that the introduction of more smart tables would allow casinos to gain deeper insights into players' behavior, enhancing their ability to assess the true value of their clientele.

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